-geoff
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From: Phil Agre <pagre@weber.ucsd.edu>
To: rre@weber.ucsd.edu
Subject: papers by Andrew Odlyzko
Date: Thu, 9 Jul 1998 16:45:08 -0700 (PDT)
[Andrew Odlyzko at AT&T is one of those people who gets labeled a
contrarian, which simply means that his views are contrary to the
views of the people who do the labeling. The irritating thing is
that his arguments are generally backed up with facts and make obvious-
now-that-you-think-about-it connections that refuse to go away. See,
for example, his argument that the simplicity of the Internet is much
over-hyped -- if, that is, you include all of the complex effort that
is invested daily by zillions of site maintainers, effort that is
not required by phone-system "sites". The point is not to defend the
phone system -- I don't think even AT&T does that -- but to move back
from a gadget focus to a system focus, which is always a good idea.]
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Date: Wed, 8 Jul 1998 18:29:03 -0400 (EDT)
From: Andrew Odlyzko <amo@research.att.com>
Subject: request for comments on papers about networks
Five papers on data networks have just been posted on the Web at
<http://www.research.att.com/~amo/doc/networks.html>.
Hopefully they will be of interest to you. They are:
1. The economics of the Internet: Utility, utilization, pricing,
and Quality of Service
2. Smart and stupid networks; Why the Internet is like Microsoft
3. Data networks are lightly utilized, and will stay that way
4. The size and growth rate of the Internet (with Kerry Coffman)
5. Dynamic behavior of differential pricing and Quality of Service
options for the Internet (with Peter Fishburn)
All are available in PostScript (.ps) and Adobe Acrobat (.pdf)
formats. Comments and especially corrections would be greatly
appreciated.
************************************************************************
Andrew Odlyzko amo@research.att.com
AT&T Labs - Research voice: 973-360-8410
http://www.research.att.com/~amo fax: 973-360-8178
************************************************************************
Text abstracts:
The economics of the Internet: Utility,
utilization, pricing, and Quality of Service
Andrew Odlyzko
Abstract
Can high quality be provided economically for all transmissions on the
Internet? Current work assumes that it cannot, and concentrates on
providing differentiated service levels. However, an examination of
patterns of use and economics of data networks suggests that providing
enough bandwidth for uniformly high quality transmission may be practical.
If this turns out not to be possible, only the simplest schemes that
require minimal involvement by end users and network administrators are
likely to be accepted. On the other hand, there are substantial
inefficiencies in the current data networks, inefficiencies that can be
alleviated even without complicated pricing or network engineering systems.
- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smart and stupid networks:
Why the Internet is like Microsoft
Andrew Odlyzko
Abstract
Is the Internet growing primarily because it is a dumb network, one
that simply delivers packets from one point to another? If that were
so, we surely would not need huge and rapidly growing ranks of network
professionals. A more detailed look suggests that the Internet is
succeeding largely for the same reasons that led the PC to dominate
the mainframe, and are responsible for the success of Microsoft. The
Internet offers an irresistible bargain to a crucial constituency,
namely developers, while managing to conceal the burden it places on
users.
- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data networks are lightly utilized,
and will stay that way
Andrew Odlyzko
Abstract
The popular press often extolls packet networks as much more efficient
than switched voice networks in utilizing transmission lines. This
impression is reinforced by the delays experienced on the Internet and
the famous graphs for traffic patterns through the major exchange
points on the Internet, which suggest that networks are running at
full capacity. This paper shows the popular impression is incorrect;
data networks are very lightly utilized compared to the telephone
network. Even the backbones of the Internet are run at lower
fractions (10% to 15%) of their capacity than the switched voice
network (which operates at over 30% of capacity on average). Private
line networks are utilized far less intensively (at 3% to 5%).
Further, this situation is likely to persisi. The low utilization of
data networks compared to voice phone networks is not a symptom of
waste. It comes from different patterns of use, lumpy capacity of
transmission facilities, and the high growth rate of the industry.
- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
The size and growth rate of the Internet
K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko
Abstract
The public Internet is still far smaller, in both capacity and traffic,
than the switched voice network. The private line networks are
considerably larger in aggregate capacity than the Internet. They are
about as large as the voice network in the U.S., but carry less traffic.
On the other hand, the growth rate of traffic on the public Internet,
while lower than is often cited, is still about 100% per year, much
higher than for other types of traffic. Hence, if present growth trends
continue, data traffic in the U.S. will overtake voice traffic around
the year 2002 and will be dominated by the Internet.
- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dynamic behavior of differential pricing and Quality
of Service options for the Internet
Peter C. Fishburn and Andrew M. Odlyzko
Abstract
The simple model on which the Internet has operated, with all packets
treated equally, and charges only for access links to the network,
has contributed to its explosive growth. However, dissatisfaction
with the delays and losses in transmission, and the requirements of
new services such as IP telephony, have stimulated the development
of methods for providing Quality of Service (QoS), and this will make
the Internet more complicated. Differential quality will also force
differential pricing, and this will further increase the complexity
of the system.
The solution of simply putting in more capacity is widely regarded as
impractical. However, it appears that we are about to enter a period
of rapidly declining transmission costs. The implications of such an
environment are explored by considering models with two types of
demands for data transport, differing in sensitivity to congestion.
Three network configurations are considered: (1) with separate networks
for the two types of traffic, (2) with a single network that provides
uniformly high QoS, and (3) with a single physical network that provides
differential QoS. The best solution depends on the assumptions made
about demand and technological progress. However, we show that the
provision of uniformly high QoS to all traffic is often best in the
long run. Even when it is not the least expensive, the additional costs
it imposes are usually not large, and in a dynamic environment of rapid
growth in traffic and decreasing prices may well be worth paying to
attain the simplicity of a single network that treats all packets
equally and has a simple charging mechanism.
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